Trend Forecast: Denim & Barrel Legs
Retail Diary's Fall 2024 Trend Insights - let's explore denim's evolution, why this category serves as a key indicator for industry shifts, retail strategies, and the wider leg moment from all angles.
Fall 2024 Fashion Forecast: Trends to Watch
Retail Diary's Fall 2024 Fashion Forecast continues with a deep dive into denim trends, exploring why this category is such a fascinating barometer for the fashion industry. We'll spotlight key items like the barrel leg jean and examine how these trends evolve from runway and the street to retail.
To get a 360-degree view, I've chatted with some true denim aficionados.
a denim (and vintage) expert with an impressive background, shares her insights on the resurgence of classic and vintage styles. I've also caught up with the team at Alex Mill to discuss their recent foray into the denim category and what's on the horizon for their brand.We'll explore the latest must-have pieces, trace how these trends gain traction, and unpack their retail significance and the strategic approaches brands are taking. From vintage finds to fresh releases, we're covering all the bases to give you a comprehensive look at the state of denim in 2024.
For Trend 1 take a look back at the Suede Fall Forecast.
Suede:
Trend 2 was all about Colors - Reds, Chocolate & Greens:
Trend 3: Category: Denim
My goal here is not to spiral too much (saving that for the strategies and insights.) I want to keep the edit tight. These are a few examples for each category to make sure we get a solid picture of each.
The Goods:
Barrel Leg Jeans
Barrel leg jeans feature a high-waisted, wide-leg design with a gently tapered ankle. Inspired by historical workwear and equestrian styles like jodhpurs and breeches, this silhouette echoes the natural wear and bow-legged shape of vintage jeans. The curved leg, often created through twisted seams or darts, adds volume to the lower body while maintaining a waist-cinching effect that balances the look.
Styling ideas - I love wearing barrel leg jeans in a laid-back, effortless way. Pair them with a simple tucked-in t-shirt (I’d later layer a sweater) and add a belt (my current favorites are this and this) to anchor the look and balance out the volume. Loafers are an ideal shoe choice for me because they add a polished, refined touch that contrasts with the casual, structured shape of the jeans. For a more modern take, opt for chunkier loafers. You can also pair the t-shirt with an oversized blazer.
Shop the style:
Nili Lotan - Shon Jean has a mid rise, relaxed fit and side darts at the knee. (hint, size down. This style runs large. I size down 1-2 sizes.)
Madewell - Darted Barrel-Leg Jean has been continually selling out (often available for pre-order so go ahead and reserve a pair if you like them.) Available in petite, standard and tall lengths. These also run a size bigger so you might need to size down.
Frame - I’ve been wearing the Low Slung Barrel* (although I wear mid-rise style which works since I’m 5ft 2) and I also like the more exaggerated Bubble. Note, Frame currently has a Friends & Family sale going on. These are both excluded but you can still use my Retail Diary Community Code for a discount. (Use code SARAH15 for 15% off non-sale + non-exclusions.)
Round-up of content and more to read on this trend:
Emma Childs wrote for Marie Claire “Fashion Authorities Analyze the Winter 2024 Trends Women Will Actually Wear” but note, I’m the one mentioning the barrel leg denim trend here. I do believe it is because we’ve gotten more accustomed to wider leg denim.
From
“Weekend Edition #22” this post explores the rising popularity of Western-inspired fashion, particularly focusing on the trend of barrel jeans. Lindsay connects this style to American swagger and nostalgia, linking it to current events like the Olympics and the upcoming election season, while reflecting on how these cultural moments influence our fashion choices.From The Cut “Yes, Barrel-Leg Jeans Are Universally Flattering.”
I find it entertaining that the majority of the comments are saying that this can’t be true and they hate the trend. So either no one who loves the style felt like commenting, or we say this style is trending but the majority of people actually do not appreciate it.
This is where I want to see the sub-category breakdown. Give me the data from Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, Saks, Frame, Agolde, Shopbop, Ssense, etc. I want to see denim silhouette sales please.
Elle UK “Barrel Leg Jeans are Officially The Denim Shape of the Season”
Wide Leg Denim
Over the past few years, we've seen denim silhouettes shift from the slim, body-hugging style of skinny jeans to the more relaxed, flowing shape of wide leg denim. This evolution offers a more casual yet luxe look, providing both comfort and style. Wide leg jeans also create a striking contrast to the skinny jeans era, giving shoppers something fresh and exciting to explore. By introducing this dramatic change in fit, it encourages customers to update their wardrobe, often leading them to shop across categories—think new shoes or tops to complement the looser, more statement-making silhouette. This shift also keeps fashion dynamic, ensuring that styles evolve season after season to keep the shopper engaged. For a customer who just can’t get into the barrel leg look, the wide leg offers another exaggerated silhouette.
For styling inspiration, I’m still loving this summer airport look from Jennifer Lawrence.
Shop the style:
Agolde - I love this Ren fit as it is wide leg without being overwhelming.
Frame - Drawstring denim has been another detail for wide leg that is helping to drive this trend. This pair from Frame is included in their Friends & Family sale event currently going on.
Citizen of Humanity - this is another cool pair of drawstring with a shoestring style that is super relaxed.
La Ligne - one more trend in denim is colored denim. This pair of La Ligne hits on both wide leg and an on trend color this season, olive green. Snag the matching denim chore coat too.
The Return of Skinny Jeans
Skinny jeans have definitely evolved over the years, and they're making a comeback for a good reason—tall boots! With wide-leg and baggier styles taking over recently, we needed something sleek and practical to pair with knee-high and over-the-knee boots, and skinny jeans tuck in perfectly. They're the ideal match for your favorite fall boots, making them a wardrobe essential again. Plus trend cycles - we’ve been distanced from this look for a bit.
Styles to shop:
Veronica Beard - this long and lean pair are perfect for heels or tucking into boots.
Good American - has a lot of innovation in terms of fit. More on that below. But this skinny jean comes just under $100.
Alex Mill - since “skinny jeans” is a term that could be triggering due to many customers thinking skinny jeans are dated, slim seems to be the term of choice. It also fits a silhouette that isn’t quite as fitted. I like Alex Mill’s Amber Mid-Rise Slim fit.
Bonus, these boots are perfect to pair with skinny jeans. A classic for a reason that sells well year after year.
Vintage Denim
Resurgence of authentic vintage denim in the past few years. Vintage denim offers a combination of unique and personal custom fit, nostalgia and sustainability. Shoppers value the authenticity, craftsmanship, and character that comes from well-worn, one-of-a-kind pieces. In recent years, the shift toward eco-conscious fashion has also fueled interest in vintage denim, as consumers seek timeless, durable alternatives to fast fashion. Plus, many of these silhouettes are on trend and if a style you prefer is not trending, you know second-hand and vintage denim, while a hunt, could offer the style you are searching for.
For key resources in vintage denim check out
and my interview with Jane Herman below.
Do you have a favorite pair or a vintage recommendation you want to share? Feel free to comment so we can all enjoy. What denim styles are you gravitating towards this season?
Denim Expert Interviews
1. Vintage insights with THE Denim Expert - Jane Herman
I have followed
’s writing and career for a long time and love her work. I’m also a paid subscriber to her Substack and recommend it to anyone who loves denim or is struggling to find a pair they love. She is a denim expert with over 20 years of experience in fashion writing, design, and creative direction. Her impressive career spans from co-founding JeanStories.com to her current "Jean Files" column for Vogue.com and her own denim-driven clothing line, The Only Jane. With her unparalleled knowledge of denim trends, both vintage and contemporary, Jane is the perfect person to shed light on the current resurgence of vintage denim and its significance in today's fashion landscape.Retail Diary: What trends are you seeing in vintage denim silhouettes and the general shopping experiences leading to vintage denim purchases?
: There are so many vintage jeans brands out there, but the favorite is still Levi's. Since I started Jane on Jeans, I've seen a renewed interest in 517s, I think because they fit most women's bodies better than vintage 501s. As for the shopping experience, I see vintage sellers like Meg Younger of Jean Genie Vintage, who uses social media to educate her customers and has made measuring oneself for a pair of vintage jeans not only easy but super accurate, succeed at selling online (a challenge for all jean sales, not just vintage). This is especially great for women who don't have the time or interest in trying on tons of vintage to get a perfect fit.
Clean, curated stores in Los Angeles like The Hidden Rivet and RLT are taking a lot of the messiness out of shopping for vintage.
Retail Diary: We're seeing a significant increase in the interest of vintage denim and not only from serious vintage collectors. What do you think is driving this interest?
Jane Herman: Two things: One, denim is deeply personal, and as fashion and style have become less about following rules and more about individual expression, vintage jeans – which are one-of-one – have become maybe the most accessible way to set one's look apart. Yes, vintage pairs can be pricey and rare. But they don't have to be the most expensive pair to still be completely unique.
Two: We're all more interested in how our purchases affect the environment these days. Buying vintage anything – and denim, especially – is a great way to support sustainability and keep quality clothes in circulation. Denim is such an incredible fabric – it's durable and, unlike most textiles, when it's made of 100% cotton it really gets better with age. It's uniquely positioned to be upcycled (E.L.V. Denim is the best example of this). Buying vintage, used, or repurposed jeans are all great ways to reduce clothing waste.
Retail Diary: You have your finger on the pulse of denim more than anyone else! What is exciting you this season in denim? What drives you to make a new denim purchase?
also shared this gem: If you're looking for vintage jeans, I highly recommend Denim Revival on 3rd Street in Los Angeles. Also, Eric Shrader at Junkyard Jeans is a legend and he can pull special pairs for you if you call him and tell him what you're looking for.Jane Herman: I'm always driven by a desire to find my next favorite pair. I can have hundreds of pairs of jeans – I do have hundreds of pairs of jeans – but you don't always know what you're missing until you've found it, right? For example, this summer I did a story on Drawstring Jeans because my readers were asking about them and I was seeing them everywhere. I had no need for a pair of drawstring jeans and I was not expecting to love them, but then this one pair – from Frame – got me hooked. I found myself reaching for them constantly, wearing them all weekend, taking them on trips, again and again. My friends noticed them. My dad (a total denim guy) pointed out the expert back pocket placement on them. A girl who works at the James Perse store on Melrose, where I was buying my brother-in-law a birthday gift, stopped me to talk about them. They've become a wonderful and reliable part of my wardrobe (even if they aren't, like my Levi's Big E 501s, the most exceptional pair I own). The Frames make getting out the door for school drop-off incrementally easier. I've napped in them. (Sarah Shapiro - sold!!) I've gone out to dinner in them. They make me feel good. The chance of finding all that in a pair of jeans is always what motivates me to buy a new pair.
I'm most excited about the range we're seeing this fall – wide leg, skinny, patchwork, cargo pocketed, embellished, high rise, low rise. Jeans are important right now– just look at the Fall 24 runways – and it's nice to see so many designers doing them so differently. People are excited about Ruadh, the new jeans line from designer Jac Cameron, which looks beautiful (launching October 8). It's safe to say that really distressed denim is still out, but other than that, anything goes.
You can read
’s latest on denim “Four Phenomenal Fall Jeans” and “Substackers’ Jeans” for a taste of her denim expertise. She also has a great post on the new denim line “Shoes Plus Jeans.”2. Alex Mill’s expansion into denim
Denim remains a staple in fashion, with consumers consistently seeking the perfect pair of jeans. Alex Mill, a brand known for its timeless aesthetic, last season expanded into this enduring market. (see men’s denim here from Alex Mill.) This move marks a significant step for the company, blending their signature style with the versatility of denim.
I recently connected with
and the Alex Mill team about their new denim line. Below showcases how they're maintaining their brand identity while entering this category, the challenges they faced, and their process for developing the right fits. They shared insights on their launch journey and offered a glimpse into their future plans. Thank you to Somsack and Alex Mill for sharing! And PS check out Substack for more fun reads especially this post with tips for styling like The Row.Retail Diary: Alex Mill is known for its classic, timeless aesthetic. How did you approach incorporating denim into your lineup while maintaining the brand's signature style? Were there any particular challenges or opportunities in balancing timelessness with current denim trends?
Somsack Sikhounmuong: As crazy as it sounds launching denim at Alex Mill was at least a 5 year approach. I, as is 99% of the people that work at Alex Mill are huge denim fans -- on any given day 60% of the team make jeans a part of their daily uniforms. Ever since the relaunch of the brand we’ve been styling a lot of our pieces back to vintage jeans on the website and even in our campaigns. We even started carrying selection of vintage jeans we curated ourselves in stores.
Nothing beats putting on your favorite pair of jeans to get you out of the house looking and feeling cool.
I always tell everyone how denim is such a science - from finding the right weight of denim to figuring out the formulas for the perfect wash to landing on the exact measurements for the right fit - it all takes time and the right team and partners to help execute and I was adamant that we wouldn't rush any of that for our launch.
In terms of how we landed on the fits- it was important not to overwhelm the customers - like the rest of our line I wanted a tight edit - for mens there was one fit in 3 washes - for women there were 3 and 2 washes each a- slim , an straight and a relaxed - for the launch it was important for everyone to come to Alex Mill and within that edit find THE ONE.
Retail Diary, I'm including wide legs as a trend in denim in this post. I love the Alek Wide Leg silhouette that was added. Was it important to add a wide leg for Fall 2024? When you launched in the spring was denim more about the classics?
Somsack Sikhounmuong: When we launched in Spring 2024 it was all about laying the foundation - these were the fits everyone needed in there closet- 1 for men and 3 for women and from there we would add new fits- fits that felt cool, fits that felt relevant to the market but also complimented the rest of the assortment - case in point the new Alek Wide Leg.
Retail Diary: How do you see your denim line evolving to meet changing consumer preferences while still staying true to your brand identity? Is there anything you think about each season to add something fresh and new to denim? (I know you are only a few seasons in.)
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