Sunday Scoop - Retail alert and a Fashion 🌀 Spiral on Loafers
Big Box Retailers rushing ahead to holiday promotions, what to look out for. A fun fashion 🌀 spiral on Loafers - the history, this season's styles and a Q&A with The Millennial Decorator & MFW notes.
Quick Hits:
Retail
🚨 Alert for Retail Industry: Walmart along with Target and Amazon plan to start holiday promotions and messaging as early as October 8th. What this could mean:
Early competition: With major players starting their holiday promotions in early October, other retailers may need to reassess their holiday marketing timelines to remain competitive.
Consumer behavior shift: could be a trend of shoppers looking for gifts earlier in the season, however I’m also curious as to how the election will impact this in the US. I think the election could lead consumers to hold off until post 2024 election decision is clear.
Extended holiday season: inventory planners, merchants etc should be aware that holiday forecasts (TY vs LY) could be adjusted. A retailer might do similar sales to LY but the time period would just be spread out more vs an entire extra month of holiday sales by starting in October. If you see increased sales in October don’t anticipate that November and December will have the same increase to LY.
Pricing pressure: Early deals from major retailers could set consumer expectations for discounts. Smaller retailers may need to consider their pricing strategies carefully to remain attractive to price-conscious shoppers. It could just drive pricing to be a race to the bottom.
Increased digital advertising costs: With major retailers starting their holiday promotions earlier, competition for online ad space will likely intensify. This could drive up the cost of digital advertising, particularly on Google and Meta. Prepare for potentially higher customer acquisition costs not to mention the additional impact from election ad spend and competition for attention. Consider diversifying your advertising strategy.
Unique value propositions: To stand out in a crowded, early-starting market, retailers might need to focus on unique offerings, exclusive products, or superior customer experiences that differentiate them from the major players.
And of course, there is the Fed Rate Cut too.
Fashion
I’ll write more on MFW for the Deep Dive Thursday. But here is what you need to know:
Prada leaned into algorithms and critiqued online echo chambers. So basically what we all talk about online quiet often. Micro-trends. I’m always looking for it. NYTimes “Prada vs. the Algorithm” (gift link to read behind paywall) by Vanessa Friedman.
Bally continues to be an under the radar label to watch. Red is sticking around. It looked very focused.
I learned about Aflalo, Yael Aflalo’s new line via Line Sheet. Lauren Sherman shared the details about the Reformation Founder’s latest fashion venture. The copy on the site has the sharp wit similar to Reformation. Styling is a point of differentiation too. Price points are certainly higher (a pony hair jacket is $5500 and final sale due to the bespoke nature of it.)
Off White has a multi-year partnership with the NY Liberty WNBA team.
Nike appoints Elliott Hill, a 32 year veteran of Nike who retired in 2020, as the new CEO as John Donahoe steps down. Shares immediately jumped 8%. Likely because a) a decision was made b) Hill knows Nike well. Hill has a great background for focusing on sales and wholesale business. I’m interested to see where the innovation that others are looking for might come from.
Beauty Brands
Ami Colé has secured an investment from L’Oreal and is using it to fuel growth, especially at Sephora.
Shoe-In for Success: Why Loafers are Back in Business
Let’s talk loafers. I wanted to dive into this silhouette that can be serious, fancy, casual, comfortable, shiny and new or fabulous and vintage. With so many versions of the loafer I can easily make a case for needing more than 1 pair in your closet. Personally I bought my second pair of loafers this season. Many years ago I bought a pair of Gucci horsebit Jordaan (second hand) and this season I added a new loafer to my assortment.
First, let’s shop
Low profile and simple silhouette: I just bought a pair of Jamie Haller penny loafers in Oxblood and I love! Zero break in period (fyi I took my true size. Fit great without a sock or I can wear a thin pair of socks like these.) More options:
Opening price point: Dolce Vita
Mid-range & high quality: Freda Salvador and Le Monde Beryl
High-end: The Row
The chunky loafer is back this season: Stuart Weitzman with a heel and thicker treads. Available in a variety of colors. And in a lower heel but still feels chunkier in a trending dark chocolate suede.
She’s cute, sexy and ready to work. I’m loving the Lousia Loafer from Margaux. The Andie is gorgeous too. (For $35 off your first order of $200 or more use code SARAH35.)
Washable, available in a ton of colors, and still super comfortable. I’m also into the style of the Rothy’s new lug loafer.
Mule, d’orsay, creeper, boot or woven (for the woven Loeffler Randall you can use code Sarah10 for 10% off.)
For the full experience and all things loafers, Freda Salvador has a landing page here. Having a landing page helps improve SEO, increase discovery for the customer and shop all the silhouettes and affinity SKUs as once. (Use code RETAILDIARY15 to receive 15% off for first time customers on full priced styles.)
History:
Debatable when the first loafers were designed/worn:
Shoes worn by Native Americans look very similar to the style of shoe that we now refer to as the loafer.
In the early 1900s Norwegian fishermen were wearing laceless shoes called tesers.
In the 1920s the British designed loafers for King George VI as a pair of casual country shoes.
G.H. Bass first started making the “Weejun” loafer style shoe. There was a strap that they added across the vamp of the loafer with a small hole that fit a penny. Hence, penny loafer.
Did you know the Gucci Horsebit Loafer first launched in 1953?
Pop Culture Moments for the Loafer:
Michael Jackson wore black penny loafers to perform his moonwalk in the “Billie Jean” video.
In “Funny Face” Audrey Hepburn worn black penny loafers with cropped pants instantly making this look chic. The comfortable shoe brand Birdies just posted this image to Instagram sharing that Audrey Hepburn’s look in “Funny Face” inspired their Starling Loafer.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s portrayal of Jordan Belfort in “The Wolf of Wall Street” often used Gucci horsebit loafers to detail and showoff the wealth and success in the financial world.
Loafers: Classic & a Trend
Loafers have been a classic (hence all the history and pop culture moments listed above) but with this classic there is also trending moments.
Above is the Google Trends (tracking searches) from 2004 to present. You see the loafers steadily increase (as online shopping also steadily increases too) but then you notice in late 2019 to early 2020 it takes a hit as COVID changes our work from home habit.
However, I find it so interesting that as soon as early 2021 when returning to the office the trend picks up stronger. Likely because this is a flat shoe and comfortable. We were ready to ease back into work clothing but switching heels for more casual and flat shoes.
From listening to
I also heard her talking about how Gen Z and Gen Alpha aren’t searching via Google. Here, we see searches for TikTok and other style searches as indicators. Plenty of TikTok loafer content too.
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Vintage Loafer Styling & Tips
After I saw
share on Instagram that she was sourcing vintage loafers I went right to the source to get insights on all things vintage loafers. Julia Rabinowitsch is an impressive vintage curator with the best eye. She owns the online shop The Millennial Decorator has one of the best beauty sink styling and launched the airport bin fit check.Retail Diary: What are your top tips for styling vintage loafers in a modern wardrobe?
Julia Rabinowitsch (aka The Millennial Decorator): A good pair of socks! Especially in the fall or winter a good pair of socks makes or breaks a loafer in my opinion. I personally love J Crews socks as they are fairly underrated gems that I purchase every fall. The cashmere ribbed ones are my favorite for winter as well as the cotton ribbed ones for fall!
Retail Diary: When shopping for vintage loafers, what key features or details should people look for to ensure quality and authenticity?
Julia Rabinowitsch: Honestly I've received some fairly beat up loafers during my time sourcing and they can almost always be fixed. I typically re-do the soles as a sanitary precaution and the leather is usually re-polished! I get a lot of questions around authenticity and I am always here to help you discern if you need some assistance- I will say however you rarely see fakes with vintage shoes. Of course, it exists and I've seen my fair amount in my day but compared to other vintage categories, with vintage shoes (especially loafers) you rarely need to worry.
Retail Diary: Who are some of your favorite style icons or muses that have worn loafers particularly well, and what can we learn from their approach?
Julia Rabinowitsch: Kendall Jenner, Zoe Kravitz, The Olsen Twins, Kate Moss- the more casual the approach, the better in my opinion. When you try and dress up a loafer too much, it can look librarian-esq. My go-to with loafers is a nice pair of socks, some tapered vintage levis, and a button down or white T.
Thank you Julia and be on the lookout for her next vintage loafer drop!
Fashion Finds
Vogue showcased the stylish flannel shirts already hitting the streets. I had a feeling after seeing The Row Spring 2025 Lookbook that we would see flannel shirts again this season. My pick is this one.
New arrivals from Doen for Fall Drop 2. A few highlights:
a great statement duffle coat that looks incredibly cozy
my favorite Henri top in a new floral print (and I love moody florals with a black background)
I could immediately tell that this midi dress was a version of their best selling (and quickly sold out) summer sailor style dress. Interesting that they did a fall dress in Linen, but no so odd considering their large LA customer base and the brand HQ.
This cardigan is the one knit that stood out to me as more distinctly Doen.
This Doen Heirloom dress with lace is the kind of dress you can wear year after year (hence the heirloom of it.) I also love this Black Cherry lace dress.
Doen seems to have more shoes in this launch, including a loafer.
Beauty Finds
Hand Care - a few products that have a hold on my attention and are making a difference.
I keep this Hand Screen SPF 40 lotion in my car. I also have a bigger bottle at home but it really helps as the sun keeps beating down while I’m in the car to grab it and quickly put it on again (of course safely while my car is parked.)
Recently I added this Sidia hand lotion to my desk drawer and I grab it throughout the day. It absorbs so quickly so it doesn’t interfere with my Retail Diary typing. After using a few times I can also see an improvement in how soft my hands are without being greasy.
The Theraplush lotion from Soft Services is really fantastic. I’ve given as a gift, convinced others to purchase, and I keep repurchasing for myself. The retinol hand cream is wonderful, the vessel looks beautiful on a nightstand and I love that it is refillable.
Bonus for your digits, I love this cuticle oil.
🛍️ Quick note: I write a lot (too much good stuff to share!) so if you’re reading via email only, you may need to click through to the web version or read on the Substack app. I promise it will be worth it. 🛍️
Substacks to Scroll
- rounded up the favorite denim of the season from Claire Mazur from (and moi) and many many more. “Substackers’ Jeans”
- podcast on “How Gen Z Spends Their Money.” What I was thinking as I listened to all the nostalgia this season (J. Crew catalog return, 1994 Old Navy edit, Abercrombie & Fitch “is back”, Limited Too, Victoria’s Secret attempt at a come back etc) is yes, there is the nostalgia and warm & fuzzy feeling, but when a brand like J. Crew attempts to bring us back have our styles remained the same? If you were into prep in high school and college and loved J. Crew, is your style the same or are you now into Toteme, Reformation, Tory Burch etc.? Substackers were interviewed on this podcast episode.
Town & Country mentioned Fashion Substack highlighting
and and listed a few hot fashion items (I’m guilty of linking to at least 4 of the 6 including 1 in this post. Did you spot it?) Who is your favorite Substacker to follow for Fashion items to shop?
Enjoy your Sunday Scoop. xx
Sarah Shapiro
What’s Next
More Fashion Month notes on Thursday in the Deep Dive. I’m finishing up a Fall Fashion Forecast on Denim and fingers crossed it will be ready Tuesday.
Catch up on Retail Diary:
Deep Dive - Week of September 9th 2024 - NYFW in a New York Minute
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Re the timing of the holiday calendar this year. In addition to many retailers starting promotions earlier this year, and the election, the actual US calendar this year has less days between Black Friday and Xmas this year. If you work in retail merchandise buying and/or planning buckle up it’s going to be a bumpy ride
Just purchased black croc loafers from Freda (thanks to CAKE) and cannot wait to wear them!