Deep Dive - Week of September 30th 2024 - The end of Fashion Month & are people shopping?
This week I dig deep into the data to take a look to see if people are shopping and I wrap up the Paris Fashion Week news.
Paris Fashion Week dominated fashion headlines this week, serving up not just stunning collections but also major industry shakeups. Hedi Slimane's confirmed departure from Celine, with Michael Rider stepping in as the new creative director. Amidst this whirlwind designer musical chairs, I wanted to tackle another pressing question: Are people actually shopping? While data can be overwhelming, it's crucial for getting an accurate picture of the retail industry. Retailers are pulling out all the stops to engage shoppers in this busy election year. My verdict after crunching the numbers? (Spoiler alert) Yes, people are indeed shopping!
This Week's Topics:
PFW Wrap-Up
New Collabs
New Launches
New Store Openings
PSA - Fashion Finds & Sales
The Business Section
What else I ❤️️
PFW Wrap-Up
Lots of PFW thoughts. And of course, the Celine conversation.
Chanel
• Two comments about Chanel and the lack of a Creative Director (instead designed by the “Creation Studio”) stood out to me:
“While the speculation about a new designer mounts, this one was designed by the “Creation Studio,” in other words, the design studio, who did a perfectly fine job of meeting the expectations of Chanel’s loyal clientele around the world. At which point you wonder how much this clientele even cares whose actual name is on the finished product. It’s all Coco as far as they’re concerned.”
And Lauren Sherman for Puck’s Line Sheet:
“The commercial collections are so good, and I’m sure plenty of Chanel customers don’t even know Coco Chanel is dead, let alone Karl.”
Rachel Tashjian for the Washington Post pulled it all together with this:
“In Paris, Designers Audition for Chanel” (gift link to read behind paywall)
First we saw Hedi Slimane’s video Runway Show for Celine knowing that he didn’t renew his contract with Celine (owned by LVMH.) My surprise at seeing the heavily hinted at Chanel influence (fine, 1960s & tweed) influence at Celine was “what does Celine corporate/LVMH think of this??” I love the intro on Tashjian’s WaPo article:
“How do you interview for one job when you’ve already got another?
In the real world, you say you’ve got a doctor’s appointment, a family emergency. You take a personal day.
But in fashion, which has about as much in common with the real world as a high-heel shoe has with a blanket, you design the clothes you’d make if you were somewhere else. It’s a bit like taking your current paramour out and cooking your crush’s favorite meal, then Instagramming it: See how this beef bourguignon would look coming from my kitchen?”
As for the actual Chanel Runway show - it felt typical Chanel. Tweeds, boxy jackets, feathers, floaty fabrics as capes, black and white/cream. Some solid handbag silhouettes.
Hedi Slimane & Michael Rider - What’s next for Celine
How did we get here. For a bit of context:
Back in April 2024 it was discussed that Hedi Slimane and Celine contract negotiations had broken down.
Shortly after, in June 2024 it was announced that Virginie Viard was leaving Chanel.
To go way back, it is worth noting that in 2001 Karl Lagerfeld shared that he lost 100 pounds so that he could fit into Hedi Slimane for Dior Homme clothing.
Hedi Slimane
After 7 successful years as the Creative Director at Celine, Hedi Slimane is leaving. His next step is not immediately known (although it is widely speculated that he might be heading to Chanel.)
He has helped catapult Celine to one of the fastest growing brands at LVMH revenues around 2.5 billion euros annually.
For one of his first articles for the NYTimes, Jacob Gallagher wrote “The Whiplash of a Major Fashion World Shake-up” (gift link to read behind paywall) about the news.
Chantal Fernandez wrote for The Cut about Hedi Slimane leaving Celine “Hedi Slimane’s Celine Era is Over.”
Michael Rider
Michael Rider was named the new Creative Director for Celine. Rider worked as the design director for RTW for a decade. From 2008-2018 he worked under Creative Director Phoebe Philo at Celine. Most recently Rider was the Creative Director at Polo Ralph Lauren and he also worked as a senior designer at Balenciaga from 2004-2008. Rider is an American who graduated from Brown University.
Celine announced Rider as the new Creative Director hours after it announced that Slimane was officially leaving. The Celine video Runway Show had been released 3 days prior.
PFW Final Thoughts
Rachel Tashjian WaPo had some excellent pieces this week:
On Loewe & Jonathan Anderson, it is his creativity and merchandising sensibility that creates an amazing line and runway show. “What makes a great designer today? Jonathan Anderson offers an answer.”
And the appeal of Miu Miu both in the ability to create original trends but also showcasing the way women actually want to (or do) dress. Undone and wearing favorites of past eras. “Miu Miu captures the way women dress now: Hasty, imperfect beauty”
The Row and their no phones policy. What I also took away from the images is that we will be wanting to layer black and white knits for Spring/Summer. “The Row goes off grid at Paris Fashion Week”
and more write ups
Vanessa Friedman on “What to Wear Next” leans into the idea that the pieces we saw this week are moving towards a new look. Collectively there were huge fans of the Loewe hooped skirts and extreme (but feminine) silhouettes. As well as interesting materials like feathers used to create the t-shirts.
New Collabs
One third of Levi’s shoppers are women and the brand/retailer wanted (needs) to bump that up to 50%. As soon as Beyoncé dropped Cowboy Carter with the Levii’s Jeans song, Levi’s CMO Kenny Mitchell went into overdrive to 1) change the Instagram Handle to Levii’s (with the additional “i” from the song) and 2) secure a collab with Beyoncé. That campaign launched this week and you can read more from Jordyn Holman for the NYTimes here “Beyoncé Released a Song and Levi’s Saw Its Moment”
Margaux collabed with London based creative Matilda Goad from MG & Co on a capsule of their (comfortable) and popular demi mary jane in fun color combos. The brown satin and denim with a red strap are my two favorites. (For $35 off your first order of $200 or more use code SARAH35.) You can read about the intimate 20 person dinner for the launch in Brooklyn here from the NYTimes.
Eloquii x Kate Spade on a plus size collection that will be sold exclusively on Eloquii. The collection is very edited and holiday focused. Most sizes are already sold out highlighting the opportunity and need for this space - fashion pieces with more inclusive size ranges.
Stefano Pilati’s collection for Zara is now available and selling fast.
Last week’s Retail Diary mentioned the collab between The North Face x Cecilie Bahnsen and I love how right after the show Nordstrom posted this Instagram post about how they will be carrying the collab.
Naadam x Dr. Seuss collab on a small collection focused on Cat in the Hat and Thing 1 & Thing 2. Maybe an opportunity for parents dressing up and taking kids trick-or-treating?
I typically don’t report about CPG/Food & Bev, but I think the Starbucks x AG1 partnership is pretty smart for both brands. Excited to see this collab. I think it is a better move vs Erewhon because of the large amount of Starbucks locations and the more accessible price point. I think this can help AG1 even more with brand awareness (although it seems wild with all the Podcast ads etc that someone wouldn’t know AG1) but also showcasing Starbucks as a “healthy” option.
New Launches
Fashion Launches
Literary Sport DTC site is officially open and accepting orders for shipping in the next two weeks. Honestly, prices aren’t as high as I was expecting (I’ve been trained I guess) but they are on the high end for workout wear. I’m intrigued to try the merino tops and the track pants. The styling is fantastic. Layering tanks and short sleeves over a longer sleeve - you know I’m a fan.
Jamie Haller is launching a new mule this week. Keep your eyes peeled. Looks sleek, minimalist and refined.
Hart’s Vesta Case is a beautiful new way to wear a locket or pendant. It holds something larger than a photo and looks like a vintage lighter. I love jewelry innovation like this.
Béis worked with resale operations company Trove to launch Second Béis, a resale program on their website. The pre-loved products will retail for 30% less.
Limited Too realized that their bigger opportunity in relaunching was with Millennials and thus needs adult sizes. I’m curious to see if nostalgia actually drives sales or if people want to see what Limited Too for adults would look like. I agree this is tricky - 1) Gen Alpha isn’t aware of Limited Too and would like rather wear Lululemon, Free People or Abercrombie etc. and 2) Even if I wore Limited Too as a child/tween it certainly doesn’t fit my style or needs now. Curious what
thinks of this latest announcement.
Beauty Launches
Birkenstock (and no, I didn’t mislabel in beauty instead of fashion) launched a skincare/footcare assortment. The most surprising thing to me is that they didn’t collab with another brand but instead launched their own. You can see the line here and the packaging looks very elevated.
WSJ. Magazine covers Matthieu Blazy new fragrances for Bottega Veneta “With New Fragrances, Bottega Veneta Smells a Hit” (gift link to read behind paywall) A few key highlights:
Yes, we are in a major fragrance moment. “The fragrance industry is booming. Here’s why it makes scents.” Washington Post article from July 7, 2024. “Fragrance is the fastest-growing category in the prestige beauty sector, with sales climbing 13 percent in the first quarter, according to market research firm Circana” First time buyers and men are driving much of the sales increase and there is a focus on high-end brands. BV fits squarely in that. 25.7% growth in prestige fragrances since 2021.
If you cannot purchase a BV handbag or outfit you might be able to afford a prestige fragrance, even at the higher price points.
Bottega Veneta will have no gendered fragrances.
Kering Beauté’s first project are these BV fragrances and should help drive a new revenue stream for Kering with a larger footprint in beauty. Prices will be $450 for a bottle and refills for $320.
InnBeauty Project launched a Pumpkin Spice Lip Oil. I’ll say the color they executed seems perfect for Pumpkin Spice.
RMS is launching at Ulta this Sunday and the launch will coincide with a new Lip Oil.
New Store Openings
La Ligne has opened their newest location - Charleston, South Carolina.
Ring Concierge opened their Houston, TX location right after their LA Century City location last week.
The Jordan Brand is taking over the Nordstrom pop-up space in NYC now through November 10th.
PSA - Fashion Finds & Sales
An item you have to see - this Loewe shearling puzzle tote. There is also this beautiful exclusive Loewe puzzle tote color combo for MyTheresa.
Away is having a buy more save more sale. The Fall Getaway Sale is on now with no exclusions. Buy 2 items, 10% off. Buy 3 items, 15% off. Buy 4 or more, 20% off. No exclusions. I recommend checking out their Softside suitcases if you haven’t tried yet and I also love the Featherlight collection for how organized they are as carry-on pieces.
Doen launched their Hand Me Doen event. It is help for a limited time and is an opportunity to purchase pre-loved and previous season pieces.
Rothy’s has really expanded their cold weather offering. They have their new bouclé material, more boots (in water resistant merino), and a cold weather clog. I expect that the boot would be a great option for rainy days and for dirty winter days - easy to clean these shoes.
Freda Salvador launched their Fall Drop 3 Collection on Friday October 4th. Checkout the motorcycle boots and studs! (Use code RETAILDIARY15 to receive 15% off for first time customers on full priced styles.)
One of my favorite silk PJ sets from Lunya now comes in Red, a popular shade for this Fall season. (Get 15% off with code retaildiary)
I wore this amazing dress* from Ann Mashburn and it was an immediate love. I know I’ll get so much wear out of it. First, it HAS POCKETS! Next, the sleeveless top is perfect since it was 100 degrees (I’m not exaggerating) but I can’t wait to style it later this winter with these boots and this perfectly cozy sweater* from Goop. I’m 5ft 2 inches and the dress is long on me but I didn’t bother hemming. Maybe I’ll take up 2-3 inches later but I like having the length to wear with boots for now. If you need a work dress or a dress to travel in I highly recommend.
I’m a fan of Veronica Beard’s Dickey Jackets and I noticed this newest zip-in dickey has an attached scarf. Very cool and immediately I thought of the inspiration from the layered scarves last winter and the Scoat (scarf coat hybrid.)
Similarly, loving this Toteme sweater with the attached scarf.
Make mine a mini - sub $1k handbags from luxury brands
This WSJ article on micro bags at the $1k price point is very interesting in terms of trends (smaller handbags) and how to create a pricing strategy around diversifying a luxury brand. Also helps the luxury brands acquire new customers. Here are a few bags to check out:
Jacquemus has a large selection at this price point as it seems to be the sweet spot for le chiquito bags.
Chloé utilizes raffia as the main material to help it hit the under $1k price point. It still has the bucket shape that fits with the bohemian styling.
Givenchy’s Voyou “nano” bag (another popular term for the mini bags) has a bit more edge to it.
Loewe’s Anagram pouch can hold a phone, lipstick and mini wallet. They utilize canvas and cut out leather to keep the price point down. Using the Anagram as the key detail also has a nice branding moment for anyone looking for a designed interpretation of a logo.
The category of WOC or a “wallet on chain” from luxury designers really helped enter into this price point. A more functional wallet and great for evening. A boxier version from Gucci that will still easily hold lipsticks, keys and a phone, this Rockstud version from Valentino still has plenty of hardware at just under $1k.
The Row doesn’t hit the sub $1k but they can do things their own way. The Row assortment has a few popular more “trend” items at the just over $1k price point. The ‘90s barrel bag at $1090 and the slouchy Bindle at $1050.
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The Business Section
Consumer Spending Check-In
Earlier this week, the diaglogue on Substack was around fall shopping habits and if people were shopping. The conclusion was that people weren't shopping. I think we need a broader perspective to truly understand consumer behavior. I'd love to share some insights from industry-wide data and reports that give us a more comprehensive view of what's really happening in retail this season. It's not just about asking our friends or a small subset of people who made the choice to respond – it's about looking at the bigger picture to get an accurate read on shopping trends.
To start with, here are 4 accurate places to research, and then I’ll share what I found.
Government statistics - like the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Report and the Bureau of Economic Analysis consumer spending data.
Industry Reports - National Retail Federation (NRF) reports and forecasts is well respected. I also really appreciate McKinsey & Company's retail insights.
Financial data - Quarterly earnings reports from major retailers (think Nordstrom, Macy’s, Saks, Gap but also Target, Walmart, Amazon etc.) and Stock market performance of retail sector indexes.
Consumer confidence indexes
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