Deep Dive - Week of July 15th 2024 - Spending trends, new collabs and breaking down retail industry news

The MNZ x J. Crew collab had the fashion world very excited, Dorsey & lab grown diamonds data and understanding what is going on in the retail industry from BTS trends to department store news.

Breaking down the latest new in the retail industry from the week.

This Week's Topics:  

• Making sense of Back To School Shopping Data & Trends

• New Launches

• New Collabs

• New Store Openings & Pop-Ups

• The Business Section

• Fashion Finds

• Travel Favorites

• What else I ❤️️ 

Making Sense of Back to School Shopping Data & Trends

Depending on what articles you read, BTS (Back to School) Shopping will either be flat to slightly down or over 20% up to LY. Huge swings. Let’s talk about some of the confusion that can happen here.

• Time Frame - are we tracking the same dates TY vs LY? Where did big events like Prime Day, Nordstrom Sale, Target Day Deals etc fall during the BTS season?

  • This article mentions how retailers moved up sale events TY and triggered BTS shopping earlier.

  • The school year in parts of the country begin the first or second week of August. In other parts of the country kids are still away at sleep away camp until mid August and back to school is around Labor Day. For National Retailers trying to run efficient campaigns and operationalize the business this is a big challenge to feel relevant in all regions and not out of touch with the local consumer.

• Categories being tracked - I wish there was more transparency as to what categories we consider BTS and tracking TY vs LY. Some areas seem super clear (pencils, notebooks, backpacks, lunchboxes etc) others can be muddy (skincare, cosmetics, supplements, clothing - is a tank top BTS or summer essentials?)

• Economic Factors - Currently we are dealing with uncertain economic and political factors. A super contentious election cycle (are we ever going back to “precedented” times?) means that people are traditionally more conservative with their spending. Companies too might be trying to reel in promotions and discounts until they have a better understand of what is to come.

• Other outside impacts - How many hurricanes are tracking early this season? Are tornadoes threatening and destroying various communities? COVID picking up across the country? More rainy days driving shoppers inside and off the beach and pools? More spending on travel and experiences leaving shoppers with less discretionary income to spend on BTS? Etc.

Earlier this week

Casey Lewis

shared data that BTS would be flat to slightly down. I really appreciate Lewis’ insights and the tween and teen shopping and behavior trends. I read her links and also this in Retail Dive that spending would be up. Are you as confused as I am?

Trends to look out for, WWD shared a trendalytics survey noting denim and personalization.

New Launches

• Homecourt, Courtney Cox’s home fragrance line, has expanded into body care with 5 products. Now that the body care has launched (check it out here), I’d like to see them update the DTC site with navigation to easily shop home products vs body products. It needs to be easy to understand which products you use where (home vs self) and help with discovery. Customers who currently love the home products need to be aware of the body products and opportunity there.

• Congrats to

  Garance Doré
  as her beauty line she co-founded with CEO Emily Yeston is now at Ulta stores. You can shop the Doré brand here.

• Limited Too launches at Kohl’s.

• Roxanne First’s Bubblegum collection is colorful and fun. Bright and cheery. You can read more about the collection in WWD. My favorite takeaway is that this gives the brand a new lower price point, just under $200, to make it more accessible and bring in new customers.

New Collabs

• A subtle but so well done collab launch this week surprised and thrilled the fashion community. Maryam Nassir Zadeh x J. Crew is a fantastic collection of individual pieces that wow but also look so well done styled together for a full look. MNZ has huge fans and they showed up to grab the mini mesh tote, embellished slip dress, bikini tops, braided heels and even polka dot prints for littles. The piece I noticed that sold out quickly is the midi white skirt. Not surprising given the trend this summer of white skirts but this one has the winning drop waist too.

• The Ruggable x Goop collab looks really good. I’d love a peek under the hood of their business model (revenue generated by channel - commerce vs content vs collabs etc) to see how much revenue projects like this bring in.

• Reformation x Laura Harrier is live. Fashion for It Girls by an It Girl.

• John Hardy x Todd Snyder for men’s jewelry. I like that these two brands collabed and style wise it feels like the right fit. Dog tags, nautical styles and signet rings, which have been trending overall, round out the collection. Check it out here.

• Love this whimsical Tressé x Cafe Leandra home collection collab at Moda Operandi.

  Leandra Medine Cohen
  did an excellent job on these pieces. 🍋🍋

• The latest travel collab is a Clare V. x The Carlyle Hotel partnership. You can see more in the Instagram announcement here. The Rosewood Hotel group has proven themselves to be a strong partner with fashion brands as they have also partnered with Larroudé, Goop and Dior in recent history.

• Another travel collab, this luxe collab hits on many angles. We’ve got travel, home design and luxury fashion. de Gournay x Olivia von Halle silk pjs for The Peninsula London which celebrates Hyde Park.

• Kelly Rutherford x Vanessa Sposi, a Paris based swimwear brand, has launched a resort collab. Marie Claire UK spoke with Rutherford about the collection.

• Ariel Gordon x Honestly WTF on DIY bag charms, straps and phone cases perfect for hosting your own camp themed afternoon.

• Baskin-Robins x Susan Alexandra for your fun, kid-like summer charm necklace.

New Store Openings & Pop-Ups

• Just ahead of the Paris Olympics, On is opening it’s largest flagship on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées. Given the recent campaign and partnerships with Zendaya, Roger Federer, Loewe and Johnathan Anderson I’m rooting for On in these Olympics (that’s how it works, yes?)

• Loewe boutique opened in Marbella Club Hotel in a Spanish fishing village. There is a beautiful garden too with plenty of opportunity for fragrance products.

• After a short pop-up at Soulcycle in the Hamptons, Alex Mill is popping up in their own 600 sq. ft space in East Hampton.

• Sephora announced Sephoria will be held in Atlanta September 27th and 28th.

The Business Section

Saks & Neimans Merger updates

• Once/if the merger goes through, partnering with Authentic Brands Group, Barney’s could make a comeback.

• What will the merger mean for Independent Brands? Less leverage in negotiating or better business with a stronger retailer?

More Department Stores News

• The Nordstrom family is trying to take the business private (again, it failed 2 years ago) here are a few reasons why they want to go private:

  • Escape Wall Street scrutiny: Avoid constant pressure from quarterly reporting and investor expectations

  • Prevent takeover: Protect against unwanted acquisition attempts given their vulnerability at current stock prices (see the story on Macy’s challenges)

  • Focus on long-term strategy: Make decisions for long-term growth without short-term market pressures. This is a big challenge. With every new strategy pivot, business can often tank until the plan has some time to show growth.

• Macy’s has successfully stopped the latest takeover bids from Arkhouse Management Co. and Brigade Capital Management. A few notes:

  • Ending 7 months of takeover attempts

  • The final offer valued Macy's at about $6.9 billion

  • The board found the financing papers submitted by Arkhouse and Brigade to be insufficient for a viable offer.

  • Macy's will now focus on its "Bold New Chapter" strategy, which includes closing 150 stores and expanding small-format locations. It should be noted that takeover bids like this bring a lot of focus away from their strategy as so much work and due diligence has to be done on the bids.

Dorsey Disrupts with Lab Grown Diamonds

Diana Pearl wrote a great piece for Business of Fashion on how

Megan Alida Strachan

is disrupting the diamond and fine jewelry industry with her brand Dorsey. The insights in the article:

• lab grown diamonds now account for 17% of the overall diamond industry

• Dorsey’s vintage (classic) designs and affordability help the brand stand out (check out these vintage inspired earrings with emeralds as an example.) And note, Emeralds were dominating at the Ambani wedding so there will be a lot of focus on this stone for a bit.

• Grace Atwood
  ’s influence (she was quoted in the article, and of course, other influencers as well) helped drive the interest in the brand. When you see these gorgeous pieces on you want to know more, and then understanding that they are affordable and not $10,000 is a major thrill.

• Worth noting, that Founder

  Megan Alida Strachan
  ’s own personal style drives the interest in the brand too. Worth checking out her Instagram for how she styles as well as following her
  What I Put On Today by Meg Strachan
  (note her Substack is currently on pause) and the Chat channel of her Substack has readers searching for links of what she wears.

• The brand doesn’t spend more than 15% of gross revenue on marketing.

• Dorsey has been iterating (one of my recent favorites will be back in stock soon - preorder yours now - turquoise stunner) and I’m loving the new bangles that are coming. They look gorgeous and like nothing else I see on the market. I’m excited to see the brand creating more unique looks and styles. The stacking rings are smart too - because what is better than 1 ring? Many rings.

More Fashion & Beauty Business News

• EssilorLuxottica SA agreed to buy Supreme from VF Corp for $1.5 Billion in cash. James Jebbia founded Supreme in 1994 and has shared that he supports the sale so Supreme can focus on product, brand and the customers. VF Corp acquired Supreme from Carlyle Group in 2020 for $2.1 Billion. While they have lost money in this deal I assume they were ready to move on and focus on the core business of VF Corp that they need to. EssilorLuxottica is the global leader in the eyeglasses, sunglasses and contact lenses business.

• Vera Bradley is relaunching. Fits in with other ‘90s brands making a comeback, but this relaunch feels like it isn’t tapping into the nostalgia and is more going after a new consumer. Based on this WWD article after a few missteps, the brand has dug into data, consumer insights and industry trends for a mixture of back-to-basics that has worked in the past (ex seasonal catalogs) and new with a logo and modern leather handbags. They’ve also introduced a new nylon fabrication. What do you think of the “new” Vera Bradley? Vera Bradley CEO and CMO were also on the Glossy podcast this week sharing more about their strategy.

• This article in Business of Fashion asks when Shoppers will push back on rising prices. I think customers already are. When products go on sale because customers aren’t purchasing, that is one way of showing that either the design or the price point isn’t resonating. If the price is discounted and then customers buy then the design is resonating but the price isn’t (and customers just love a sale!)

• Along these lines of consumer spending, keeping an eye on Brunello Cucinelli business.

• Rodan + Fields recently raised $75 million in funding. Perhaps due to the challenges Beautycounter and other MLM lead business have faced, they are changing the business model to be affiliate led vs a multi-level direct model.

People in the News

• Vinima Shekhar is the new head of Beauty for Walmart. Most recently she was the head of Wellness for Walmart. The path to leading beauty seems to be through Wellness. It was noted that in the Wellness category Shekhar successful hit all KPIs related to sales, profit and digital targets and therefore was the right choice to lead beauty where she will hopefully continue this strong trend.

• Let’s breakdown what is happening at Burberry as they announced a new CEO this week.

  • The fashion house announced that revenue is down more than 20% for the last quarter which ended June 29, 2024. Shares dropped 16%. Because of this the business really needed to make some changes.

  • Jonathan Akeroyd is out as CEO. He has been in that role less than two and a half years. Joshua Schulman is in as the new CEO, previously leading Michael Kors and Coach.

  • Currently no creative changes are being made, so Daniel Lee is still the Creative Director.

  • BoF also wrote a great breakdown here.

  • A few thoughts on Burberry business from me:

    • What has worked in the past for Burberry in their turnaround could lay the groundwork for some strategies. I have been so impressed with Rose Marie Bravo (CEO 1997-2006) and her meticulous strategy that focused on key items that resonated with pop culture and the industry as a whole. It might have swung too far at times, but the Burberry Bikini and modernizing/rethinking the Trench Coat really stand out to me. As well as holiday season selling the cashmere scarves like you wouldn’t believe¹

    • Another win for Burberry was Angela Ahrendts (CEO 2006-2014) and her digital strategy and growth and her stores strategy. Ahrendts brought in the idea of Retail as Theater and did such an incredible job with it she was recruited to lead retail stores for Apple.

    • Wondering out loud if Burberry should hire another winning female CEO? I’m just here looking at the trends…Bravo and Ahrendts really lifted the Burberry business and drove significant revenue growth.

🛍️ Quick note: I write a lot (too much good stuff to share!) so if you’re reading via email only, you may need to click through to the web version or read on the Substack app. I promise it will be worth it. 🛍️

Fashion Finds

• Métier’s summer travel edit includes two great east-west totes that are functional and elevated. The Cala 42 in Woven Fabric Sahara is logo free with beautiful leather details. The Cala 42 in a pop of yellow is great too. This shape works well for travel as you can easily organize inside of it and the detachable pouch can be used as a crossbody bag.

• Summer sets are trending. They work so well because you can go casual, comfortable, polished, trendy and everything in between. It’s one and done in two pieces, easy and works together. You can also break the pieces up. Trade the shorts from summer to denim in the fall. Not ideal for customers, but for brands and retailers this is a win because you are selling two pieces instead of one and driving up the AOV. Retailers could play with set pricing (save 10% if you purchase both pieces.) But if they are selling without discounts, no need to add!

  • Showing the power of this category, brands/retailers like Rhode have added a category to the Navigation (helps with discovery and SEO.) I love how Rhode leaned in to set this season. shorts, skirts, matching and coordinating.

  • Casual: this top and shorts paired together

  • Linen: top and matching bottom from a California cool brand.

  • Anything can be a set when the colors are black: this top, these boxer style shorts

  • Polished: I’m wearing this top* with these pants* right now. Use code Sarah10 for 10% off these items.

  • Trendy: this set from the Laura Harrier x Reformation collab

  • Gingham: available in extended sizes. Shorts and the top.

• The Loewe Squeeze in denim. This new fabrication makes a great casual tote.

• Caught another fish charm necklace and added to the edit here.

• Trend Forecasting: Ladylike shoes for Fall. All are from one retailer so I’d love to see them pull together a trend forecast content piece on this.

  • gold block kitten heel, the Jimmy Choo Elme flat as a 45mm heel

  • Magda Butrym pointed flats look great with capris. Very Audrey Hepburn.

  • Two piece glossed leather from Aeyde

  • Beautiful for a wedding

    

Travel Favorites

• Enjoyed some time off this week at Carmel Valley Ranch. We loved playing tennis, making lavender crowns (their organic garden is incredible) and swimming at the pool. I spent a lot of time in my favorite bathing suit by Left on Friday (I wear this) and wore this Doen dress as my “coverup.”

• Before spending time in the organic garden I was so happy I used this Kate McLeod moisturizing bar that has natural insect repellants. It smelled so natural and fresh, kept my skin hydrated and no bugs bothered me. win, win, win.

• Tennis time this week I wore my favorite vuori shorts (I noticed multiple Vuori tennis skirts on the courts), I’ve been loving these Year of Ours tanks* and layering a long sleeve* over for cooler mornings and inside AC. Sunscreen Always! Favorite for my lips with SPF 30 - I like Rosy Brown and my Gen Alpha daughter loves the pink (I’m happy she is wearing SPF.)

• Enjoyed dressing like my suitcase with this sweater* from La Ligne and my Away x La Ligne Suitcase*. I’m super intrigued by the soft sided suitcase Away just launched and will be sharing my thoughts soon as I plan to try this. The packing cubes are an essential for me.

• These were the perfect jammies* to lounge around in. Get 15% off with code retaildiary at Lunya.com. Lunya also has a great assortment in the Nordstrom Anniversary sale: same set I wore in another print, I also have this tshirt set and this tank set.

What else I ❤️️ 

• To make it easy to track Retail Diary discount codes and offers I created a stand alone post listing all the details. You can find it here along with some products I recommend. I’ll keep updating it as relevant and it is in the navigation of my Substack landing page. Consider this a thank you to readers/subscribers and a thank you to the brands that support Retail Diary.

• Love this breakdown from

  Emma Apple Chozick
  on the architecture and design of Aesop stores.

• I’ve been wearing an anklet bracelet and not taking it off. It holds up for pool time, playing tennis and is such a fun summer accessory. Three I like: I’m wearing this* and this* and I love this one too.

• Taylor Swift and jewelry in the news this week:

  • Colorful Necklaces for her Milan Eras Tour show - an Italian brand took advantage of Swift’s economic power for their beaded little necklaces.

  • Taylor Swift friendship bracelets get more expensive. To note, these are to wear and not trade! I love Roxanne Assoulin stretch bracelets and have a bunch.

This week I loved learning about the randoseru, a backpack carried by school children in Japan.

What's Next?

Excited to have a Fashion Spiral for your next week as we kick off the Paris Olympics. I’m keeping an eye on BTS trends but with this weather I think summer styles will continue to sell for longer this season. Another reason why brands offering more year round merchandise will continue to sell well (why I’m loving the recent Ben cashmere and silk collection from La Ligne) and why I think the summer sets above are doing so well.

Thanks for reading Deep Dive Edition 174

Sarah Shapiro

Recent Posts:

❤️ If you enjoyed this deep dive into all the latest retail news please click the like button at the bottom of this post so others can discover it.

📧 Maybe even share with someone else who would enjoy.

📱Find Sarah’s Retail Diary on Instagram

💬 If you are on the Substack app or platform join the chat and I’m happy to respond to any questions in the chat or comments.

You can email me at sarahshapiro@substack.com with any requests or thoughts.

Thanks for reading Sarah’s Retail Diary! Subscribe to receive new posts and support my work.

FYI: I use affiliate links where applicable which means I may get a small commission from things you buy (at no cost to you.) Thank you for supporting my work and trusting me. Love that we can enjoy Fashion & Retail together in this space.

Items marked with * have been kindly gifted by brands. Thoughts, selections, and reviews are my own.

1. I was the former Buyer for Burberry Accessories at Bloomingdale’s. Burberry Scarves were hot and continued to sell as the prices increased over the years.